Comment on The Iranian counterrevolution: a good start by Shalom Freedman

As you indicate at this point the questions are more numerous than the answers. But the number of dead as of January 2 is at least twenty- five. As I now understand it the demonstrations are from the poorer classes that are the bedrock of the Islamic regime. The high unemployment, inflation and simple difficulty of making a decent life are the major motive. It is not the educated urban classes of 2009 and it is not primarily in Tehran.
Their chances of overthrowing the regime at this minute seem small, but it is impossible to know. Clearly the demonstrations weaken the regime and may slow up its focus on ‘exporting the Revolution’.
What is clear is that it is also a political protest and one which wishes for ‘ freedom’ in various ways.
The failure of the Europeans to support it is another mark of shame, and these countries.
As I understand it in order the protests to bring about regime change large members of the Armed forces would have to defect. We see no sign of this yet.
But how this will go is it seems unpredictable at this point.