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| Abbas in better times [Image Source] |
The opinions of Palestinian Arabs are, to a great extent, a puzzle.
By that, we don’t mean what their elites say they think. Or what outside reporters guess are their opinions. It’s not a free or open society. It doesn’t have unrestricted media – quite the opposite. And it hasn’t had elections for well over a decade.
So, as we keep saying in this blog, what Palestinian Arabs tell trusted fellow Palestinian Arabs who are professional opinion pollsters about the things they actually believe is a subject always worth revisiting. (The last time we did that was here: “04-Jun-19: What do Palestinian Arabs think?“)
Our previous poll-centered posts have centered on the published data of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) headed by Dr. Khalil Shikaki. Click here to go to those previous posts – we started analyzing and reporting on them in 2011.
We’re doing that again now based on PSR’s most recent Public Opinion Poll, number 74, which was published [here] on December 26, 2019.
The polling was done both in the Fatah/PLO-controlled West Bank and in the Hamas-occupied Gaza Strip in the period December 11 to 14. Total size of sample: 1,200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error +/-3%.
President Abbas?
Mahmoud Abbas became president of the Palestinian Authority in the January 2005 elections. That was a four-year term that has famously just ‘celebrated’ its fifteenth birthday. Hard to avoid the conclusion that elections are not so popular among the mostly-elderly, mostly-wealthy Palestinian Arab insiders who control the operation.
Abbas’ power is broad. Beyond the PA role, he holds these additional titles in parallel:
- Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) since November 2004
- President of “State of Palestine” since May 2005
- Chairman of Fatah since 2009, conferring bonus leadership of Fatah’s proliferating de facto terrorism wings: al-‘Asifah, Force 17, Black September Organization, the Fatah Hawks, the Tanzim and Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades.
The data show that the people he rules don’t seem to like him much.
As of this past December, 61% of the Palestinian Arab public wanted Abbas to resign, exactly the same percentage as three months earlier. This is split between the 52% of West Bank Arabs who hold that view (higher than the percentage 90 days earlier) and the no-less-than-73% of Gazans who want to see Abbas leave office immediately.
A Two-State Solution?
Support for the concept of a two-state solution stands at 42%.
A support level this low could justifiably be interpreted to indicate overall Palestinian Arab ambivalence (at best) or opposition. Oddly, the same poll goes on to show that fully two-thirds of all Palestinian Arabs see the US “declaration of the legality of Israeli settlements according to international law” as being the thing that’s blocking the two-state solution.
War or peace?
What’s their “most preferred way out of the current status quo“:
- “Armed struggle”: 39% (slightly up on the number of three months earlier)
- “Reaching a peace agreement with Israel”: 29%
- “Waging a non-violent resistance” (what they mean by this is unspecified): 14%
- “Keep the status quo”: 15%.
Asked to identify “the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation“:
- Armed struggle: 47% (three points higher than three months ago)
- Popular resistance: 20%
- Negotiations: 26%
In view of how “the peace negotiations are suspended“, which alternative directions (more than one is acceptable) do they support?:
- Popular non-violent resistance: 60%
- A return to an armed intifada: 52%
- Dissolving the PA: 42%
- Abandoning the two-state solution and demanding the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis: 28%
Their society’s most vital goals?
- Option 1: “To end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital“: 44%
- Option 2: “To obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages“: 33%
- Option 3: “To build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings“: 13%
- Option 4: “To establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians“: 9%
The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today?
- The continuation of occupation and settlement activities: 28%
- Poverty and unemployment: 26%
- The spread of corruption in public institutions: 26%
- The siege of the Gaza Strip: 17%
Is there any significance in the absence of any stated desire among those polled (or perhaps among the pollsters) to build better lives for their children? Hard to know. The words “child” and “children” don’t appear anywhere in the English language summary of the PSR poll.
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