If more Arab countries normalize relations with Israel, what will the PLO leadership do?
They angrily denounced the UAE and Bahrain agreements, trying to marginalize those countries from the Arab League and failing miserably.
They seemed a little more circumspect about Sudan, but also a little more shocked.
However, in general their media is not looking at this as a wake-up call. It is still a reason for them to dig in their heels and say that they have principles that they will not give in on, even when their Arab benefactors are urging flexibility.
Part of the reason is that the PLO leadership is waiting for the US elections. They are hoping that Joe Biden rolls back Trump’s pro-Israel moves and returns to a posture of pressuring Israel, coddling Palestinians and linking world peace to Palestinian acceptance of an offer.
But if they miscalculate – if either Trump wins, or if the other moderate Arab states decide to recognize Israel without US sponsorship (very possible if Biden embraces Iran and pushes Arab states towards Israel,) or if Biden recognizes that the Middle East is not the same as it was four years ago – then what?
The PLO has two options. One is to listen to its friends and accept a solution that Israel can live with. The other is to remain intransigent and seek new friends – namely, Iran.
Right now, under US sanctions, Iran is not in a position to financially aid the PLO. And unless the PLO changes its current stated policy of avoiding terror attacks, it is unlikely that Iran would fund it. But if Biden wins the presidency, and he lifts sanctions against Iran and puts Sunni Arab states in the same uncomfortable position that Obama did, it seems possible that the PLO will embrace Iran as its new benefactor.
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